From my previous experience all I need to solve such a case is to draw a decision tree evaluating the different possibilities and the amount of money allocated to each decision. then I'll estimate the probability of each decision multiplied by the amount required to execute such decision. the tree will give us the cost of every decision and the allocated probability.
I use Palisade products because they were recommended by my Quantitative analysis professor but there are a lot of other programs that can give you the same service and are for free. to be successful in the world of business one should not be afraid of using all the tools available. for such an application we will need the estimated cost of each action. (1- redesigning the old platform. 2- buying, installing the new platform, 3- not doing anything) keeping in mind the probability of success of each platform.
the situation in 2001 is not so far from the situation that we are experiencing these days. the future is uncertain and any company in this situation will face 2 decisions: either invest and expect the bad wave to pass and u'll harvest what you have planted. or you just hide not invest and keep the status quo until the storm passes.
historically as we have learned from the burst of the internet bubble in the beginning of the 21st century, during bad times big financially comfortable companies invest heavily so they can ride the wave from the beginning when things start getting better (off course they would they can afford it), while small companies stop all investments and keep all planes on the tarmac until things get better.
therefore my opinion a good decision considering that the online business of casadellibro.com was not that strong and not that known it is not wise to invest more and occur more expenses while we don't know if the result is going to be positive. based on this analysis I will not advise the new CEO to make any decision neither to invest in a new platform nor to invest in redeveloping the existing one.
for sure the CEO will not come up with such a noble decision that will most probably risk his career but in my opinion that is what should be done. keep the old system and not invest even in modifications until the economic overview is better.
On the other hand the Criteria that the company defined for the Platform performance were:
high performance: as defined by wikipedia, it is the amount of useful work that is executed with in a give time and using a given resources. usually high performance is measured with a computer's Short response time for a given piece of work High throughput (rate of processing work), Low utilization of computing resource, Fast (or highly compact) data compression and decompression, High bandwidth / short data transmission time
security: the systems ability to stop attacks, viruses hackers… from intentionally disrupting the process of the work as seen previously this can be done by software means (Antivirus, Firewall…) or by physical means (update policies…)
availability: the time where the system is available for utilization. the system theoretically is supposed to work 24/7. while it is more common with smaller systems PC's, laptops… to have system errors these errors are (should be) fewer in a bigger capacity system: Server...
scalability: again our friends in wikipedia indicate the following about scalability the ability to either handle growing amounts of work in a graceful manner or to be readily enlarged.
on the other hand I would add the following criteria:
General Economic forecast: if the CEO keeps on focused on the informational details without considering the future market forecasts and evaluating future risk then he should not be a CEO. it is the the job of department managers to worry about technical details while it is the job of the CEO to look at all the other details especially the environment where the company is operating to back his decisions.
Cost of change: a criterion that was rightfully not discussed (since a lot of organizations discard it, and only few institutions like Instituto de Empresa make sure to pass it to their students) is the cost of change and the time and money that it will take to develop the new program (in the case the company will adopt the new program) and the time and cost that it will take people to adapt to it. from different experiences we can get that this is a very high cost that most of the time if ignored leeds to organizational failure.
Tuesday, June 22, 2010
Tesco
Some one said it and I don't have time to check the reference so I hope the ethics committee will turn a blind eye in this hot day while the games are going on and I have to sit here and write a report about TESCO….
Some one said it: "if you are not online you do not exist"
Off course I'm not going to write regarding an IS topic and say… you know what TESCO would have been as competitive if they were not investing in their IT systems.
but NO I know for sure they could not have been so competitive and yes IT did give them a competitive edge!
but it is not only important to make a decision to implement one system or the other. the most important step that TESCO did is explore all the potential that the system they implemented had to offer. (this requires a full integration and adoption of any system in the company from top to bottom). This might sound not so important for the case but whether from personal opinion or from analyzing the culture of the other competitors when they were applying the fidelity card system I know that you don't just implement a system because others did.
from my personal experience I was in charge of setting in place a fidelity card system (not anywhere close to the electronic card system that TESCO has in place, since I was designing it for an african market) after the customers showing a considerable enthusiasm for the idea it was shortly stopped after launch particularly because the top management was not convinced that the system will bring any added value. For them it was just a new fresh graduate in a managerial position that needs to come up with new ideas to show he is worth his salary and this has translated into the project being discarded at the lower levels of the companies even if it was adopted by the clients.
I might be sharing this story just to vent or to blame others for my failure but for a reason I felt that this has a lot in common with TESCO's competitors. not only were they late to adapt to the system they as well adopted it for the wrong reasons… they adapted it because others did.
which leads to my main point TESCO invested heavily in their loyalty card system, and after implementing it they used the data collected to improve their business model and profitability (ie: by using the data to adjust the basket of products on sale). Had they not been aware of the potential of such a system and had they not been planing carefully to use the benefits, this system would have been a huge loss!
not only going on line and having a loyalty card system will not give you a competitive advantage but rather using the valuable data that these systems allow you to collect and being ready to trust your systems enough to change your business according to the analysis you derive from them is what give you a competitive advantage.
Some one said it: "if you are not online you do not exist"
Off course I'm not going to write regarding an IS topic and say… you know what TESCO would have been as competitive if they were not investing in their IT systems.
but NO I know for sure they could not have been so competitive and yes IT did give them a competitive edge!
but it is not only important to make a decision to implement one system or the other. the most important step that TESCO did is explore all the potential that the system they implemented had to offer. (this requires a full integration and adoption of any system in the company from top to bottom). This might sound not so important for the case but whether from personal opinion or from analyzing the culture of the other competitors when they were applying the fidelity card system I know that you don't just implement a system because others did.
from my personal experience I was in charge of setting in place a fidelity card system (not anywhere close to the electronic card system that TESCO has in place, since I was designing it for an african market) after the customers showing a considerable enthusiasm for the idea it was shortly stopped after launch particularly because the top management was not convinced that the system will bring any added value. For them it was just a new fresh graduate in a managerial position that needs to come up with new ideas to show he is worth his salary and this has translated into the project being discarded at the lower levels of the companies even if it was adopted by the clients.
I might be sharing this story just to vent or to blame others for my failure but for a reason I felt that this has a lot in common with TESCO's competitors. not only were they late to adapt to the system they as well adopted it for the wrong reasons… they adapted it because others did.
which leads to my main point TESCO invested heavily in their loyalty card system, and after implementing it they used the data collected to improve their business model and profitability (ie: by using the data to adjust the basket of products on sale). Had they not been aware of the potential of such a system and had they not been planing carefully to use the benefits, this system would have been a huge loss!
not only going on line and having a loyalty card system will not give you a competitive advantage but rather using the valuable data that these systems allow you to collect and being ready to trust your systems enough to change your business according to the analysis you derive from them is what give you a competitive advantage.
Sunday, June 20, 2010
Apple security!
Yeah Yeah! I should be working on the graded homework, specially in this over saturated closer to exam period.
but since I'm a new appleno (apple user in Spanish accent) and I care about my compadres I thought to share this news about apple systems becoming more prone to attacks.
watch out guys and happy reading
wish you all the best with your exams.
Antonios
but since I'm a new appleno (apple user in Spanish accent) and I care about my compadres I thought to share this news about apple systems becoming more prone to attacks.
watch out guys and happy reading
wish you all the best with your exams.
Antonios
Tuesday, June 15, 2010
Enterprise Ressource Planing
Ok! so we invented the numbers, then some people created abacus to account for them, then we decided it is easier to spread a 0123456789 (+), (/), (-), (x). and we chose a paper to save it, then we started keeping books and then, was the calculator, followed by the computer, programing languages, excel sheets, Stand alone business systems then ERP.
I don't know why I had difficulties explaining this to John my Previous accountant:
well I know why:
ERP: Enterprise Resource Planing as it's name suggests, is in short a platform that treats the data coming from different areas of the business.
it is preferable to get the definition from Wikipedia (or this website) but to see why John couldn't understand this it is necessary to look at the difficulties that arise when implementing the the ERP.
when you use an ERP you basically centralize the database and you save time and cost, you reduce data entry redundancy , easier inter department communication… so we know all the benefits
off course for John who spent 3 months to figure out that the printer is not a paper dispenser the concept of the ERP is difficult but for different reasons it is also difficult for most of us.
- ERP's are generally complicated and even when they are not, people take a lot of time to adapt to the change they bring
- ERP Implementation, very costly (consultancy fees) and eventually when people don't adapt the company needs more consultants to let people adopt the change.
- not Flexible at all: any change in the process you need more consultants to adapt the systems…
you get the trend ERPs sounds more like something that consultants came up with rather than what companies need.
Sounds familiar… I just can't remember when was the last time I had something that complicated… Anh yes….. it's my last PC. I had the same feeling about Windows® Vista® but now I have a MAC and soon I'll be trying the new Google Chrome OS.
as Apple alway states Technology should make people lives easier in other words the business should not at any time be limited to the tools it has.
it's not a question of if but rather when will ERP systems just become an other open source, free program that every company can download and use for free.
I don't know why I had difficulties explaining this to John my Previous accountant:
well I know why:
ERP: Enterprise Resource Planing as it's name suggests, is in short a platform that treats the data coming from different areas of the business.
it is preferable to get the definition from Wikipedia (or this website) but to see why John couldn't understand this it is necessary to look at the difficulties that arise when implementing the the ERP.
when you use an ERP you basically centralize the database and you save time and cost, you reduce data entry redundancy , easier inter department communication… so we know all the benefits
off course for John who spent 3 months to figure out that the printer is not a paper dispenser the concept of the ERP is difficult but for different reasons it is also difficult for most of us.
- ERP's are generally complicated and even when they are not, people take a lot of time to adapt to the change they bring
- ERP Implementation, very costly (consultancy fees) and eventually when people don't adapt the company needs more consultants to let people adopt the change.
- not Flexible at all: any change in the process you need more consultants to adapt the systems…
you get the trend ERPs sounds more like something that consultants came up with rather than what companies need.
Sounds familiar… I just can't remember when was the last time I had something that complicated… Anh yes….. it's my last PC. I had the same feeling about Windows® Vista® but now I have a MAC and soon I'll be trying the new Google Chrome OS.
as Apple alway states Technology should make people lives easier in other words the business should not at any time be limited to the tools it has.
it's not a question of if but rather when will ERP systems just become an other open source, free program that every company can download and use for free.
Monday, June 14, 2010
My Spanish hardship
ok before I start my serious Blog this was this week end:
A Spanish friend visiting from Dubai (imagine that!!! visiting me in Madrid)... made 7 grown up MBA's practice Spanish on a Friday night with each holding a banana in his hand and singing:
el unico fruto del amor; es la banana, es la banana!!!
This is the price that I have to pay to learn Spanish (or in a Spanish Speaking Country)
but that's not the worst I have been through!
I'm sure this ranks way below me ordering insalada de pollo(a) I thought if I use the a it's a matter of accent.
this does not even compare to me having to finish a dish of callos, or ordering a cola con limon in chueca! but it comes close.
A Spanish friend visiting from Dubai (imagine that!!! visiting me in Madrid)... made 7 grown up MBA's practice Spanish on a Friday night with each holding a banana in his hand and singing:
el unico fruto del amor; es la banana, es la banana!!!
This is the price that I have to pay to learn Spanish (or in a Spanish Speaking Country)
but that's not the worst I have been through!
I'm sure this ranks way below me ordering insalada de pollo(a) I thought if I use the a it's a matter of accent.
this does not even compare to me having to finish a dish of callos, or ordering a cola con limon in chueca! but it comes close.
Sunday, June 13, 2010
From PR Stunt to better Customer Satisfaction
Hola!
and hope you enjoyed this lovely sunny day as much as I did. with my lovely friend and my beloved sister who was visiting.
if you were following my Blog, (I feel sorry for you, don't you have anything better to do??) but I hope you like the new changes, it's a bit empty on the left but will find something interesting to fill it.
Mean while without any due delay I'll carry on with our topic for the day!
what was the effect of Dell Hell on the general Laptop ranking for Dell. and how could have dell prevented it.
well I'll start with a short example from my old job. I used to be part of a family business that was Samsung Electronics Dealer for West Africa (mainly Ivory Coast and Ghana)
even though I must admit that the client base is different from anywhere else in the world, the main focus of the manager _and I could only understand why after I experienced it personally_ was to keep the after sales service center as far as possible from the sales show rooms. even though it didn't make (financial or logistical sense) all the time... but it shows the effect that the technical quality (and not the promoted features) of a product had on it's all performance.
The sales were oblivious to the troubles the after sales service would go through. on the other hand the after sales had the liberty to even replace the whole product in case of a "lemon" (in these cases the client will get freebies on top of the replaced item). this was considered not only the strategic thing to do (ensure repeated purchase) it was the most economical thing to do.
I assume that what is relevant in the Buzz machine/ Jeff Jarvis/Dell Hell case is that it is not enough anymore to separate the After sales from the Show rooms.
hail the strength of the blogosphere. this shift in power still amazes me.
this loyal customer tried to explain how to avoid such outcomes in the future and I would agree with few points:
1- it's people who are important not systems
2- communicate with your customers don't try to silence them.
3-Address any form of dissatisfaction head on.
and I would add as our Jeff from one row behind me slightly suggested, bring them on board. yes it sounds like asking the devil if they are accepting job applications but it's not.
the way I see it if some one gathers momentum and people (bloggers) converge around the same idea... that's an indication of a substantial issue. instead of spending huge investment on market research, R&D and collecting customer surveys, here is the chance for a company to get all this for free and in real time.
every product developer now has his personalized, by product Wikipedia. open source hardware platform (well not exactly the engineers still have to come up with the assembling).
I believe we are in an era where we have to embrace the changes and by "changing how the company adapts to the world of the Internet" reach a win win situation where all parties benefit and not only make it a P.R stunt.
and hope you enjoyed this lovely sunny day as much as I did. with my lovely friend and my beloved sister who was visiting.
if you were following my Blog, (I feel sorry for you, don't you have anything better to do??) but I hope you like the new changes, it's a bit empty on the left but will find something interesting to fill it.
Mean while without any due delay I'll carry on with our topic for the day!
what was the effect of Dell Hell on the general Laptop ranking for Dell. and how could have dell prevented it.
well I'll start with a short example from my old job. I used to be part of a family business that was Samsung Electronics Dealer for West Africa (mainly Ivory Coast and Ghana)
even though I must admit that the client base is different from anywhere else in the world, the main focus of the manager _and I could only understand why after I experienced it personally_ was to keep the after sales service center as far as possible from the sales show rooms. even though it didn't make (financial or logistical sense) all the time... but it shows the effect that the technical quality (and not the promoted features) of a product had on it's all performance.
The sales were oblivious to the troubles the after sales service would go through. on the other hand the after sales had the liberty to even replace the whole product in case of a "lemon" (in these cases the client will get freebies on top of the replaced item). this was considered not only the strategic thing to do (ensure repeated purchase) it was the most economical thing to do.
I assume that what is relevant in the Buzz machine/ Jeff Jarvis/Dell Hell case is that it is not enough anymore to separate the After sales from the Show rooms.
hail the strength of the blogosphere. this shift in power still amazes me.
this loyal customer tried to explain how to avoid such outcomes in the future and I would agree with few points:
1- it's people who are important not systems
2- communicate with your customers don't try to silence them.
3-Address any form of dissatisfaction head on.
and I would add as our Jeff from one row behind me slightly suggested, bring them on board. yes it sounds like asking the devil if they are accepting job applications but it's not.
the way I see it if some one gathers momentum and people (bloggers) converge around the same idea... that's an indication of a substantial issue. instead of spending huge investment on market research, R&D and collecting customer surveys, here is the chance for a company to get all this for free and in real time.
every product developer now has his personalized, by product Wikipedia. open source hardware platform (well not exactly the engineers still have to come up with the assembling).
I believe we are in an era where we have to embrace the changes and by "changing how the company adapts to the world of the Internet" reach a win win situation where all parties benefit and not only make it a P.R stunt.
Thursday, June 10, 2010
Advertising
Hey Guys,
before the party begins and since I'm not feeling well and can't focus enough to read anything smart, and since we discussed classical advertising and I learned the concept of Inventory in advertising out of many other concepts... in one session!!!
Amazing hunh! who thought that we can learn more than one Marketing concept in one session!!!
any way since we have discussed classical advertising I wanted you to look at this link about advertisers
I know I can do better on the comedy level... (btw he's not Lebanese);
have a good night.
before the party begins and since I'm not feeling well and can't focus enough to read anything smart, and since we discussed classical advertising and I learned the concept of Inventory in advertising out of many other concepts... in one session!!!
Amazing hunh! who thought that we can learn more than one Marketing concept in one session!!!
any way since we have discussed classical advertising I wanted you to look at this link about advertisers
I know I can do better on the comedy level... (btw he's not Lebanese);
have a good night.
Tuesday, June 8, 2010
Facebook's Cristal Ball
Sometimes, 2 years are a lifetime, (wrong place, wrong people or bad website for that matters).
or in the ever changing world in which we live in, systems (specially financial ones) can crumble in a matter of weeks.
I'm afraid the online platforms the latter case is what tends to be true and to guess how an online business will look in 2 years is like analyzing any normal business for a 100 years.
in this case we are analyzing Facebook well I believe this guy has said everything there is to say about it (Facebook) but in 2 years who knows.
One of my favorite topics is where does the money come from, Who's paying. well most of Facebook's revenue is due to advertising. this is a model that a lot of online websites are counting on but (excuse my Spanish) no me Gusta! I still don't feel comfortable to the volatility and sustainability of the model used these days. People are more and more being numb and indifferent (blind sighted on the right side) never to mention ad-aware, spybot...
another topic is SNS hve a history of being too trendy no matter how big you are how much cash you can afford to spend on your Marketing, R&D... no one can explain to me why people all of a sudden decided to leave myspace and shift towards facebook, or for that matter what was wrong with Hi5 or other SNS. people just didn't like them anymore. yes we can say the layout and find a bug or 2 but to date I'm not convinced why people would migrate. and unless profound research is conducted on this subject I'll not be convinced.
by now I have accepted the fact that to be a manager of an online model you should give up on the idea of where the company is going to be or who are their actual competitors or a lot of the paradigms that we take for granted in conventional business models.
thanks God this time I'm just gonna analyse the future of Facebook for just the next couple of years so I have something positive to say
over the past couple of weeks and especially since I have joined the IE MBA Program the count of my friends is growing at an exponential rate regardless of the new gizmos that the new site will come up with it will take me and my contacts a long time to migrate them to the new website and longer time to adapt.
off course I assume that the new platform or SNS will not have a one click option to migrate all the contacts to the new website. some how what I said doesn't make a lot of sense.
Sorry Facefous I my Cristal ball says your future is not that good. come back later.
or in the ever changing world in which we live in, systems (specially financial ones) can crumble in a matter of weeks.
I'm afraid the online platforms the latter case is what tends to be true and to guess how an online business will look in 2 years is like analyzing any normal business for a 100 years.
in this case we are analyzing Facebook well I believe this guy has said everything there is to say about it (Facebook) but in 2 years who knows.
One of my favorite topics is where does the money come from, Who's paying. well most of Facebook's revenue is due to advertising. this is a model that a lot of online websites are counting on but (excuse my Spanish) no me Gusta! I still don't feel comfortable to the volatility and sustainability of the model used these days. People are more and more being numb and indifferent (blind sighted on the right side) never to mention ad-aware, spybot...
another topic is SNS hve a history of being too trendy no matter how big you are how much cash you can afford to spend on your Marketing, R&D... no one can explain to me why people all of a sudden decided to leave myspace and shift towards facebook, or for that matter what was wrong with Hi5 or other SNS. people just didn't like them anymore. yes we can say the layout and find a bug or 2 but to date I'm not convinced why people would migrate. and unless profound research is conducted on this subject I'll not be convinced.
by now I have accepted the fact that to be a manager of an online model you should give up on the idea of where the company is going to be or who are their actual competitors or a lot of the paradigms that we take for granted in conventional business models.
thanks God this time I'm just gonna analyse the future of Facebook for just the next couple of years so I have something positive to say
over the past couple of weeks and especially since I have joined the IE MBA Program the count of my friends is growing at an exponential rate regardless of the new gizmos that the new site will come up with it will take me and my contacts a long time to migrate them to the new website and longer time to adapt.
off course I assume that the new platform or SNS will not have a one click option to migrate all the contacts to the new website. some how what I said doesn't make a lot of sense.
Sorry Facefous I my Cristal ball says your future is not that good. come back later.
Sunday, June 6, 2010
best2fly Safe or Fraud!
as you all might be doing in this time of the year! I'm booking my tickets to fly home for the summer break.
in this short stressful week end where I have 5 assignments due by Wednesday the only mental break that I can afford now is to dream about home
my mom's Tabouleh, my dad's Arak, my cousin's Bachelor Party & probable wedding (the Party is certain, I'm not so sure about the wedding)... All I have to do is book the ticket.
so eager to get my booking that I even forgot that I had collected enough miles on another airline that will allow to fly home and back on first class I go ahead and use skyscanner to book my ticket.
sky scanner searches for the best deals and after I click one the site diverts me to another site best2fly.
this is where my story begins. I book a ticket with best2fly (remember all what is in my head is Tabouleh, Arak, Bachelor party and a probable wedding). I go through the whole drill, confirm dates, chose flight hours, insurance? no insurance, no hotels, no car rental, put in my credit card details... book ticket and peace... Lebanese beaches full of Bikini-clad girls dancing to the tunes of a pirated copy of "I got a feeling"_ here I come!!!
then I'm checking my gmail for the e-ticket and I receive an email that has a lot of Spanish literature on top of my booking details. Since my Spanish is a bit rusty and I didn't understand a couple of words ( 95% of the mail) I decided to ask a friend who tells me that the website is asking you to send a signed confirmation of the amount, with a copy of both your passport and your credit card... Arak, Tabouleh, Bachelor party, Wedding... I run, I scan my documents... and
STOP!!!!!!!
what am I doing? does any one know best2fly? anyone heard of it before? who am I giving my passport my credit card my life to? they would have more information about me than the woman who brought me to this life.
Where I was living and since an unlucky group of my friends got caught in a series of credit card fraud I learned to be so cautious that I would even hide my pin code from my own shadow when I was making a transaction.
it's Madrid's fault! :) the city communicates a sense of security that I forgot that a hacker or a credit card scam can take place in the basement of a dodgy place at the other end of the world.
now the question remains is it a fraud or is it a security measure! I don't know.
I just know that I'm not sending my copies to no one!
let me know guys what you think about it.
in this short stressful week end where I have 5 assignments due by Wednesday the only mental break that I can afford now is to dream about home
my mom's Tabouleh, my dad's Arak, my cousin's Bachelor Party & probable wedding (the Party is certain, I'm not so sure about the wedding)... All I have to do is book the ticket.
so eager to get my booking that I even forgot that I had collected enough miles on another airline that will allow to fly home and back on first class I go ahead and use skyscanner to book my ticket.
sky scanner searches for the best deals and after I click one the site diverts me to another site best2fly.
this is where my story begins. I book a ticket with best2fly (remember all what is in my head is Tabouleh, Arak, Bachelor party and a probable wedding). I go through the whole drill, confirm dates, chose flight hours, insurance? no insurance, no hotels, no car rental, put in my credit card details... book ticket and peace... Lebanese beaches full of Bikini-clad girls dancing to the tunes of a pirated copy of "I got a feeling"_ here I come!!!
then I'm checking my gmail for the e-ticket and I receive an email that has a lot of Spanish literature on top of my booking details. Since my Spanish is a bit rusty and I didn't understand a couple of words ( 95% of the mail) I decided to ask a friend who tells me that the website is asking you to send a signed confirmation of the amount, with a copy of both your passport and your credit card... Arak, Tabouleh, Bachelor party, Wedding... I run, I scan my documents... and
STOP!!!!!!!
what am I doing? does any one know best2fly? anyone heard of it before? who am I giving my passport my credit card my life to? they would have more information about me than the woman who brought me to this life.
Where I was living and since an unlucky group of my friends got caught in a series of credit card fraud I learned to be so cautious that I would even hide my pin code from my own shadow when I was making a transaction.
it's Madrid's fault! :) the city communicates a sense of security that I forgot that a hacker or a credit card scam can take place in the basement of a dodgy place at the other end of the world.
now the question remains is it a fraud or is it a security measure! I don't know.
I just know that I'm not sending my copies to no one!
let me know guys what you think about it.
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