Facebook's Cristal Ball

Sometimes, 2 years are a lifetime, (wrong place, wrong people or bad website for that matters).

or in the ever changing world in which we live in, systems (specially financial ones) can crumble in a matter of weeks.

I'm afraid the online platforms the latter case is what tends to be true and to guess how an online business will look in 2 years is like analyzing any normal business for a 100 years.

in this case we are analyzing Facebook well I believe this guy has said everything there is to say about it (Facebook) but in 2 years who knows.

One of my favorite topics is where does the money come from, Who's paying. well most of Facebook's revenue is due to advertising. this is a model that a lot of online websites are counting on but (excuse my Spanish) no me Gusta! I still don't feel comfortable to the volatility and sustainability of the model used these days. People are more and more being numb and indifferent (blind sighted on the right side) never to mention ad-aware, spybot...

another topic is SNS hve a history of being too trendy no matter how big you are how much cash you can afford to spend on your Marketing, R&D... no one can explain to me why people all of a sudden decided to leave myspace and shift towards facebook, or for that matter what was wrong with Hi5 or other SNS. people just didn't like them anymore. yes we can say the layout and find a bug or 2 but to date I'm not convinced why people would migrate. and unless profound research is conducted on this subject I'll not be convinced.


by now I have accepted the fact that to be a manager of an online model you should give up on the idea of where the company is going to be or who are their actual competitors or a lot of the paradigms that we take for granted in conventional business models.

thanks God this time I'm just gonna analyse the future of Facebook for just the next couple of years so I have something positive to say

over the past couple of weeks and especially since I have joined the IE MBA Program the count of my friends is growing at an exponential rate regardless of the new gizmos that the new site will come up with it will take me and my contacts a long time to migrate them to the new website and longer time to adapt.

off course I assume that the new platform or SNS will not have a one click option to migrate all the contacts to the new website. some how what I said doesn't make a lot of sense.

Sorry Facefous I my Cristal ball says your future is not that good. come back later.